AAAS Science and Human Rights Program

Mortality in Iraq

Tuesday, 6 February 2007

Speakers

• Dr. Gilbert Burnham, Center for Refugee and Disaster Response, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University
• Ms Shannon Doocy, Center for Refugee and Disaster Response, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University
• Dr. Scott Zeger, Dept of Biostatistics, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University

Discussants

• Jana Asher, Science and Human Rights Program, American Association for the Advancement of Science
• Dr. David Marker, Westat

Time

2:00PM-4:30PM

Location

Bureau of Labor Statistics
Conference Center, Rooms 1&2
2 Massachusetts Avenue, NE

To attend, at least 2 days in advance of the seminar you must either e-mail your name, affiliation, and name of seminar to wss_seminar@bls.gov or call 202-691-7524 and leave a message. Bring a photo ID to the seminar.

Sponsors

Washington Statistical Society
SHR-AAAS
DC-AAPOR
CASPA

Abstract

In unstable situations, population based data are the most reliable method of estimating mortality and other health indicators. In many conflicts and fragile state settings, however, collecting such data is difficult to do. Aside from the physical dangers, there is often an incomplete understanding of population numbers, population locations, migration patterns, and health status of the population. That lack of understanding contributes to many methodological challenges. However, population based data are increasingly important in planning protection of and assistance to affected populations, as well as for reconstruction policy.

In Iraq we have undertaken two population-based national surveys of mortality related to conflict using a cluster survey approach. The first covered the period from January 2002 until July 2004, using 33 clusters with 988 households and 7,868 persons. That survey estimated an excess mortality of over 100,000 persons following the March 2003 invasion. The second survey covered the period from January 2002 until July 2006. That survey included 47 clusters containing 1,849 households and 12,801 persons. From that survey an excess mortality of 654,965 (CI 392,797-942,636) was estimated, with 601,027 deaths attributed to violent causes.

The presentations will discuss the methodological and ethical issues involved in conducting our research in Iraq.

(site updated 12/26/2006)