AAAS Scientific Responsibility, Human Rights and Law Program

Violence and the Changing Ethnic Map: The Interdependence of Territory and Conflict in Bosnia


The relation between geographic settlement patterns of ethnic groups and conflict has usually been examined in a unidirectional way; many studies deal with the question of how certain settlement patterns promote conflict. However, the reverse causal direction has been neglected. My paper addresses the question of the interdependence of settlement patterns and conflict, that is, how settlement patterns affect conflict, and how conflict in turn changes the ethnic map. I study the dynamics of group geography and conflict in Bosnia using data on ethnic population shares at the municipality level, both from before and after the war. These data are combined with information on conflict events from the Armed Conflict Location and Events Dataset (ACLED). My results lend support to an explanation that relates conflict to territorial aspirations of ethnic groups. Conflict is more likely in municipalities with a high degree of inter-ethnic competition. Furthermore, conflict seems to be the process that transforms the system into a less competitive one. I show that as a result of conflict, the overall territorial competition decreases.